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JPMorgan
2026-09-30 03:30:59

JPMorgan says tech valuation reset is largely done, favors semiconductors over software

JPMorgan said in a Sept. 28 equity strategy report that the valuation reset across much of the technology sector has already gone a long way, leaving positioning cleaner while earnings momentum and the capital spending cycle remain intact. The bank said the tech and AI ecosystem had stalled for three months from June through last week, but valuation compression in most areas had become significant enough to justify re-engaging with the sector. The report, summarized by TechFlowPost and attributed to analyst Mislav Matejka, draws a sharp distinction between semiconductors and software. JPMorgan said forward earnings for semiconductors have continued to move about 30% higher, while software has seen almost no earnings upgrades. It therefore recommends re-entering the semiconductors-over-software relative trade. The bank also said the so-called Magnificent 7 now trade at their cheapest valuation level in a decade, nearly one standard deviation below the broader market, while hyperscaler earnings growth should help support performance after an estimated 8% underperformance this year. JPMorgan also argued that the AI capex upcycle remains intact, with hyperscaler capital spending projected to grow at a 28% CAGR through 2030. It added that agentic AI could materially shift infrastructure demand by moving CPU-to-GPU ratios from roughly 1:4 to 1:8 in traditional large language model setups toward 1:1, or even more in favor of CPUs.

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